Date: November 20, 2025 Ticker: NYSE: TGT Topic: Q3 Earnings Analysis & Holiday Outlook
By The Numbers: Q3 2025 Financial Breakdown
The following table highlights the significant gap between Wall Street expectations and Target's actual performance, reflecting a "high-stakes" environment for the retailer.
| Key Metric | Q3 Actual | Q3 Expected (LSEG) | Status |
| Earnings Per Share (EPS) | $1.85 | $2.30 | ❌ Significant Miss |
| Revenue | $25.23 Billion | $25.74 Billion | ❌ Miss |
| Comparable Sales | +0.3% | +1.4% | ⚠️ Weak Growth |
| Digital Sales | +10.8% | N/A | ✅ Bright Spot |
| Stock Reaction | ▼ 20% (Intraday) | N/A | 📉 Sharp Decline |
Deep Dive: Three Core Reasons Behind the Struggle
According to retail analysts and the earnings call transcript, three specific headwinds are derailing Target’s momentum heading into the winter season:
1. The "Funflation" Hangover (Discretionary vs. Essentials)
Target relies heavily on high-margin discretionary items. CEO Brian Cornell noted a distinct shift in consumer behavior during the earnings call, stating that "consumers are becoming increasingly resourceful and strategic, waiting for deals and prioritizing essentials over wants." While the Beauty and Food categories showed resilience, high-ticket categories such as Electronics, Home Goods, and Apparel saw significant volume declines.
2. The Supply Chain Surprise
Unexpected costs hit Target's bottom line hard this quarter. The company cited higher-than-anticipated expenses related to rushing inventory (expedited shipping) to prepare for the looming port strikes in October. This eroded gross margins significantly - a logistical hurdle that competitor Walmart managed to mitigate more effectively due to its larger scale.
3. Losing the "Price Perception" War
In the current inflationary environment, Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) are winning the battle for the value-conscious consumer. Target is often perceived as a "premium" discounter. When household budgets tighten, the middle-income shopper - Target's core demographic - trades down to Walmart or Costco for everyday needs, leaving Target's aisles quieter.
Holiday 2025 Outlook: A Defensive Strategy
Heading into Q4, Target is shifting to a defensive strategy to salvage the holiday season. The company has lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.30 to $8.90 (down from $9.00 to $9.70).
Target’s Plan to Win Back Shoppers:
Price Cuts: The retailer is slashing prices on over 2,000 essential items for the holidays.
Affordable Gifting: Launching a focused campaign featuring items under $5 and $10 to capture the "stocking stuffer" market.
Leveraging Digital: Doubling down on same-day delivery services via Target Circle 360, capitalizing on the 10.8% growth in digital sales.
Why did Target stock drop today? Target stock (TGT) dropped over 20% intraday after a significant earnings-per-share miss in Q3 ($1.85 vs $2.30 expected) and a lowered profit outlook for the remainder of the year, signaling a weak holiday season.
Is Target doing worse than Walmart? Yes. In Q3 2025, Walmart reported strong growth fueled by high grocery volume and wealthier shoppers trading down. Target, lacking Walmart's grocery dominance, suffered heavily from a pullback in discretionary spending.
What is Target's prediction for the 2025 holidays? Target predicts flat to low-single-digit sales declines for the holiday quarter. Management has warned of a "volatile" consumer environment where shoppers will likely wait for deep discounts before committing to purchases.
